Злой рок. Политика катастроф

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1249

«Most Americans Say Trump Was Too Slow in Initial Response to Coronavirus Threat», Pew Research Center, April 16, 2020, https://www.people-press.org/2020/04/16/most-americans-say-trump-was-too-slowininitial-responsetocoronavirus-threat/.

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1250

«Coronavirus: Outbreak Concern», Civiqs, https://civiqs.com/results/coronavirus_concern?uncertainty.

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1251

Mat Krahn, «We all have Schrodinger’s Virus now», Facebook^?, March 30, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/mat.krahn/posts/3076953808995462.

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1252

Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 12 (March 26, 2020), https://doi.org/10.25561/77735.

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1253

Nicholas Kristof and Stuart A. Thompson, «Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens If We Do», New York Times, March 25, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html.

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1254

Maria Chikina and Wesley Pegden, «A Call to Honesty in Pandemic Modeling», Medium, March 29, 2020, https://medium.com/@wpegden/acalltohonestyinpandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b.

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1255

Seth Flaxman et al., «Estimating the Number of Infections and the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European Countries», Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 13 (March 30, 2020), https://doi.org/10.25561/77731.

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1256

Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19».

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1257

Felicia Sonmez, «Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick Comes Under Fire for Saying Seniors Should ‘Take a Chance’ on Their Own Lives for Sake of Grandchildren During Coronavirus Crisis», Washington Post, March 24, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/texasltgov-dan-patrick-comes-under-fire-for-saying-seniors-should-takeachanceontheir-own-lives-for-sakeofgrandchildren-during-coronavirus-crisis/2020/03/24/e6f64858-6de6-11ea-b148– e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html.

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1258

Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo), «My mother is not expendable. Your mother is not expendable», Twitter, March 24, 2020, 9:43 a.m., https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242477029083295746.

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1259

Thomas J. Kniesner and W. Kip Viscusi, «The Value of a Statistical Life», Vanderbilt Law Research Paper No. 1915 (May 16, 2019), available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3379967.

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1260

Greg Ip, «Economics vs. Epidemiology: Quantifying the Trade-Off», Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/economicsvsepidemiology-quantifying-the-trade-off-11586982855.

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1261

Andrew Scott, «How Aging Societies Should Respond to Pandemics», Project Syndicate, April 22, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-aging-societies-should-respondtopandemicsbyandrew-scott-202004.

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1262

Я благодарен Эдварду Лэзиру за разъяснение этой проблемы. Если вам интересен альтернативный взгляд, согласно которому «с экономической точки зрения наш отклик соответствовал угрозе, исходящей от вируса», см.: Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), pp. 304f.

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1263

Christos A. Makridis and Jonathan Hartley, «The Cost of COVID-19: A Rough Estimate of the 2020 U. S. GDP Impact», Mercatus Center Special Edition Policy Brief, March 23, 2020, доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559139.

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1264

Jay Boice, «Experts Say the Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But the Trajectory Is Still Unclear», FiveThirtyEight, March 26, 2020, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectoryisstill-unclear/.

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1265

Roman Marchant et al., «Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions», May 26, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734. For a critique of the models, see Andrea Saltelli et al., «Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto», Nature 582 (June 24, 2020), pp. 482–484, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-018129.

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1266

Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.

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1267

«EuroMOMO Bulletin», European Mortality Monitoring Project, http://www.euromomo.eu/; «Weekly Death Statistics: Dramatic Rise in Deaths in Early Spring», Eurostat, July 21, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Weekly_death_statistics &stable#Dramatic_rise_in_deaths_in_early_spring.

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1268

«Tracking COVID-19 Excess Deaths Across Countries», Economist, July 15, 2020, https://www.econo mist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid19excess-deaths-across-countries; Jin Wu et al., «Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak», New York Times, July 31, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html; «Coronavirus Tracked: The Latest Figures as Countries Fight COVID-19 Resurgence», Financial Times, August 18, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441.

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1269

Об очень спорном вопросе приписывания смертей COVID-19 и иным причинам избыточной смертности, см.: John Lee, «The Way ‘COVID Deaths’ Are Being Counted Is a National Scandal», Spectator, May 30, 2020, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-countedisanational-scandal; David Spiegelhalter, «COVID and ‘Excess Deaths’ in the Week Ending April 10th», Medium, April 24, 2020, https://medium.com/wintoncentre/covid-and-excess-deathsinthe-week-ending-april-10th-20ca7d355ec4.