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Источник: Ведомости, 15.02.06
Lesson 22
Macroeconomic Theories
Read and translate the text and learn terms from the Essential Vocabulary.
The Greatest Economist of the 20th Century: John Maynard Keynes
John M. Keynes is the world-famous author of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936.
In Keynes’s theory, macro-level trends can overwhelm the micro-level behavior of individuals. Instead of the economic process being based on continuous improvements in potential output, Keynes asserted the importance of the aggregate demand for goods as the driving factor. He argued that government policies could be used to promote demand at a macro level, and to fight unemployment and deflation.
Keynes stated that there was no strong automatic tendency for output and employment to move toward full employment levels. This conflicts with the principles of classical economics, and the supply-side economics, which assume a general tendency towards equilibrium in a restrained money creation economy.
Keynes questioned two of the dominant pillars of economic theory: the need for a gold standard, and the Say’s Law which stated that decreases in demand would only cause price declines, rather than affecting real output and employment.
It was his experience with the Treaty of Versailles that pushed him to break with previous theory. His book The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1920) recounted the general economics of the Treaty and the individuals involved in making it. The book established him as an economist who had the practical skills to influence policymakers. Keynes developed the idea of monetary policy as something separate from maintaining currency against a fixed peg. He believed that economic systems would not automatically right themselves to attain
In the late 1920s, the world economic system began to break down, after the shaky recovery that followed World War I. Critics of the gold standard, market self-correction, and production-driven paradigms of economics moved to the fore. Dozens of different schools contended for influence. Some pointed to the USSR as a successful centrally-planned economy; others pointed to the alleged success of fascism in Italy.
Keynes stepped into this chaos and promised not to institute revolution but to save capitalism. He circulated a simple thesis: there were more factories and transportation networks than could be used at the current ability of individuals to pay and the problem was on the demand side.
Keynes and the Classics
Keynes explained the level of output and employment in the economy as being determined by effective demand. In a reversal of Say’s Law, Keynes in essence argued that «man creates his own supply,» up to the limit set by full employment.
In «classical» economic theory, adjustments in prices would automatically make demand tend to the full employment level. Keynes, pointing to the sharp fall in employment and output in the early 1930s, argued that whatever the theory, this self-correcting process had not happened.
Wages and Spending
Even in the worst years of the Depression, the classical theory defined economic collapse as simply a lost incentive to produce. Mass unemployment was caused only by high and rigid real wages. The proper solution was to cut wages.
To Keynes, the determination of wages is more complicated. He argued that it is not realbut nominal wages that are set in negotiations between employers and workers. It is not a barter relationship. First, nominal wage cuts would be difficult to put into effect because of laws and wage contracts. Even classical economists admitted that these exist; unlike Keynes, they advocated abolishing minimum wages, trade unions, and long-term contracts, increasing labor-market flexibility. However, to Keynes, people will resist nominal wage reductions, even without unions, until they see other wages falling and a general drop of prices.
He also argued that to boost employment, real wages had to go down: nominal wages would have to fall more than prices. However, it would reduce consumer demand, so that the aggregate demand for goods would drop. This would in turn reduce business sales revenues and expected profits. Investment in new plant and equipment would then become more risky. Instead of raising business expectations, wages cuts could make matters much worse. If wages and prices were falling, people would start to expect them to fall. This could make the economy spiral downward as those who had money would wait as falling prices made it more valuable – rather than spending.
Excessive Saving
To Keynes, excessive saving, i.e. saving beyond planned investment, was a serious problem encouraging recession, even depression. Excessive saving results if investment falls due to falling consumer demand, over-investment in earlier years, or pessimistic business expectations, and if saving does not immediately fall in step.
The classical economists argued that interest rates would fall due to the excess supply of
«loanable funds». The first diagram from The General Theory shows this process. Assume that fixed investment in plant and equipment falls from «old I» to «new I» (step a). Step b: the resulting excess of saving causes interest-rate cuts, abolishing the excess supply: so again we have saving (S) equal to investment. The interest-rate fall prevents that of production and employment.Keynes argued against this laissez faire response. The graph shows his argument, assuming again that fixed investment falls (step A). First, saving does not fall much as interest rates fall, since the income and substitution effects of falling rates go in conflicting directions. Second, since planned investment in plant and equipment is mostly based on long-term expectations of future profitability, that spending does not rise much as interest rates fall. So S and I are drawn as inelastic in the graph.
Given the inelasticity of both demand and supply, a large interest-rate fall is needed to close the saving/investment gap. As drawn, this requires a negative interest rate at equilibrium (where the new I line would intersect the old S line). However, this negative interest rate is not necessary to Keynes’s argument.
Third, Keynes argued that saving and investment are not the main determinants of interest rates. Instead, the supply of and the demand for money determine interest rates in the short run. Neither change quickly in response to excessive saving to allow fast interest-rate adjustment.