Злой рок. Политика катастроф
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Florian Gotzinger et al., «COVID-19 in Children and Adolescents in Europe: A Multinational, Multicentre Cohort Study», Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, June 25, 2020, pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352–4642(20)301772.
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John Eligon et al., «Black Americans Face Alarming Rates of Coronavirus Infection in Some States», New York Times, April 14, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-race.html; Overberg and Kamp, «U.S. Deaths Are Up Sharply».
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Elizabeth J. Williamson et al., «Factors Associated with COVID-19 Related Death Using OpenSAFELY», Nature, July 8, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-25214. См. также: William Wallis, «How Somalis in East London Were Hit by the Pandemic», Financial Times, June 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/aaa2c3cd-eea6–4cfa-a918-9eb7d1c230f4.
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Neeraj Bhala et al.,
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David A. Martinez et al., «SARS-CoV2 Positivity Rate for Latinos in the Baltimore – Washington, D. C. Area», JAMA 324, no. 4 (June 18, 2020), pp. 392–395, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.11374; Samantha Artiga and Matthew Rae, «The COVID-19 Outbreak and Food Production Workers: Who Is at Risk?» Kaiser Family Foundation News, June 3, 2020, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid19/issue-brief/the-covid19outbreak-and-food-production-workers-whoisatrisk/; Jonathan M. Wortham et al., «Characteristics of Persons Who Died with COVID-19 – United States, February 12 – May 18, 2020», CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 69, no. 28 (July 17, 2020), pp. 923–929, http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6928e1. О коренных американцах: James Bikales, «Native American Tribal Nations Take Tougher Line on COVID-19 as States Reopen», The Hill, June 21, 2020, https://the hill.com/homenews/state-watch/503770-native-american-tribal-nations-take-tougher-lineoncovid19asstates, but also Ryan M. Close and Myles J. Stone, «Contact Tracing for Native Americans in Rural Arizona», NEJM 383, no. 3, July 16, 2020, pp. E15 – E16, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2023540.
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Nasar Meer et al. «The Social Determinants of COVID-19 and BAME Disproportionality», Justice in Global Health Emergencies and Humanitarian Crises, May 5, 2020, https://www.ghe.law.ed.ac.uk/the-social-determinantsofcovid19and-bame-disproportionality-repostbynasar-meer-and-colleagues/. См. также: Wallis, «Somalis in East London», and Hugo Zeberg and Svante Paabo, «The Major Genetic Risk Factor for Severe COVID-19 Is Inherited from Neandertals», BioRxiv, July 3, 2020, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1.
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В случае, когда репродуктивное число патогена (R0) равно 4, один заболевший заражает еще четверых. Математически порог коллективного иммунитета рассчитывается как 1–1/R0, и при R0 = 4 этот порог составит 75 % населения. (Прим. авт.)
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Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, «Here’s Why Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us from the COVID-19 Pandemic», Science Alert, March 30, 2020, https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-saveusfrom-the-covid19pandemic; Haley E. Randolph and Luis B. Barreiro, «Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19», Immunity 52, no. 5 (May 19, 2020), pp. 737–741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.012.
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Liu Tao et al., «Prevalence of IgG Antibodies to SARS-CoV2 in Wuhan – Implications for the Ability to Produce Long-Lasting Protective Antibodies Against SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, June 16, 2020, pp. 1-30, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.13.20130252; Henry M. Staines et al., «Dynamics of IgG Seroconversion and Pathophysiology of COVID-19 Infections», MedRxiv, June 9, 2020), pp. 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.07.20124636; Long Quan-Xin et al., «Clinical and Immunological Assessment of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV2 Infections», Nature Medicine 26 (June 18, 2020), pp. 1200–1204, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-09656; F. Javier Ibarrondo et al., «Rapid Decay of Anti-SARS-CoV2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild COVID-19», NEJM, July 21, 2020, pp. 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2025179.
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Bao Linlin et al., «Reinfection Could Not Occur in SARS-CoV2 Infected Rhesus Macaques», BioRxiv, March 14, 2020, pp. 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226; Deng Wei et al.,
«Primary Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Protects Against Reinfection in Rhesus Macaques», Science 369, no. 6505 (August 14, 2020), pp. 818–823, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5343; «News Room: Press Release», Korean Centers for Disease Control, https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000 &bid=0030; Roman Woelfel et al., «Clinical Presentation and Virological Assessment of Hospitalized Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Travel-Associated Transmission Cluster», MedRxiv, March 8, 2020, pp. 1-16, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502; Ania Wajnberg et al., «Humoral Immune Response and Prolonged PCR Sensitivity in a Cohort of 1343 SARS-CoV2 Patients in the New York City Region», MedRxiv, May 5, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613. Однако см.: Apoorva Mandavilli, «First Documented Coronavirus Reinfection Reported in Hong Kong», New York Times, August 24, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html.Вернуться
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Paul K. Hegarty et al., «BCG Vaccination May Be Protective Against COVID-19», March 2020, pp. 1–8, Research Gate, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35948.10880; Martha K. Berg et al., «Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Vaccination Predicts Flattened Curves for the Spread of COVID-19», MedRxiv, June 12, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054163; Akiko Iwasaki and Nathan D. Grubaugh, «Why Does Japan Have So Few Cases of COVID-19?» European Molecular Biology Organization (EMBO) Molecular Medicine 12, no. 5 (May 8, 2020), pp. 1–3, https://doi.org/10.15252/emmm.202012481; Luis E. Escobar, Alvaro Molina-Cruz, and Carolina Barillas-Mury, «BCG Vaccine Protection from Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)», PNAS, June 9, 2020, pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008410117.
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Zhao Jiao et al., «Relationship Between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility», MedRxiv, March 27, 2020, pp. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096; David Ellinghaus et al., «Genomewide Association Study of Severe COVID-19 with Respiratory Failure», NEJM, June 17, 2020, pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283; Gabi Zietsman, «One Blood Type Seems to Be More Resistant Against COVID-19», Health24 Infectious Diseases, June 15, 2020, https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/one-blood-type-seemstobemore-resistant-against-covid19202006132.
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Takuya Sekine et al., «Robust T Cell Immunity in Convalescent Individuals with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19», BioRxiv, June 29, 2020, pp. 1-35, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888; Li Junwei et al., «Mapping the T Cell Response to COVID-19», Nature Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy 5, no. 112 (July 2, 2020), pp. 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41392-020-002281; Alessandro Sette and Shane Crotty, «Pre-Existing Immunity to SARS-CoV2: The Knowns and Unknowns», Nature Reviews Immunology 20 (July 7, 2020), pp. 457–458, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41577-020-0389z; Floriane Gallaise et al., «Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Induces Cellular Immune Response Without Seroconversion», MedRxiv, June 22, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449; Paul W. Franks and Joacim Rocklov, «Coronavirus: Could It Be Burning Out After 20 % of a Population Is Infected?» The Conversation, June 29, 2020, https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-coulditbeburning-out-after20ofapopulationisinfected-141584; Julian Braun et al., «Presence of SARS-CoV2 Reactive T Cells in COVID-19 Patients and Healthy Donors», MedRxiv, April 22, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440; Kevin W. Ng et al., «Pre-Existing and De Novo Humoral Immunity to SARS-CoV2 in Humans», BioRxiv, July 23, 2020, pp. 1-38, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414; Nikolai Eroshenko et al., «Implications of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Infection for SARS-CoV2 Countermeasures», Nature Biotechnology 38 (June 5, 2020), pp. 789–791, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-020-05771.