Злой рок. Политика катастроф
Шрифт:
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1086
UnHerd, «Karl Friston: Up to 80 % Not Even Susceptible to COVID-19», June 4, 2020, YouTube video, 34:14, https://youtu.be/dUOFeVIrOPg; Laura Spinney, «COVID-19 Expert Karl Friston: ‘Germany May Have More Immunological Dark Matter,’» Guardian, May 31, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid19expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter.
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1087
Jia Yong et al., «Analysis of the Mutation Dynamics of SARS-CoV2 Reveals the Spread History and Emergence of RBD Mutant with Lower ACE2 Binding Affinity», BioRxiv, April 11, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.034942; B. Korber et al.,
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1088
Joshua Geleris et al., «Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19», NEJM, June 18, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2012410; Alexandre B. Cavalcanti et al., «Hydroxychloroquine With or Without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014; David R. Boulware et al.,
«A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638.
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1089
«COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker», Faster Cures, Milken Institute, August 14, 2020, https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/. См. в целом: Tung Thanh Le et al., «The COVID-19 Vaccine Development Landscape», Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 19 (April 9, 2020), pp. 305–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-020-000735.
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1090
Stuart A. Thompson, «How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?» New York Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html.
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1091
Nicholas Kumleben, R. Bhopal, T. Czypionka, L. Gruer, R. Kock, Justin Stebbing, and F. L. Stigler, «Test, Test, Test for COVID-19 Antibodies: The Importance of Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Powers», Public Health 185 (August 2020), pp. 88–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.06.006.
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1092
Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, Network Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), chap. 10.
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1093
За эту точку зрения я благодарен Сесилии Масколо из Кембриджского университета.
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1094
Matthew J. Ferrari et al., «Network Frailty and the Geometry of Herd Immunity», Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273, no. 1602 (November 7, 2006), pp. 2743–2748, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3636. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 21, 2020, pp. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.
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1095
Tom Britton, Frank Ball, and Pieter Trapman,
«The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for COVID-19 Is Substantially Lower than the Classical Herd Immunity Level», Quantitative Biology: Populations and Evolution, May 8, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085. См. также: Ricardo Aguas et al., «Herd Immunity Thresholds for SARS-CoV2 Estimated from Unfolding Epidemics», MedRxiv, July 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762.Вернуться
1096
Charles Musselwhite, Erel Avineri, and Yusak Susilo, «Editorial JTH 16-The Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 and Its Implications for Transport and Health», Journal of Transport & Health 16 (March 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2020.100853.
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1097
Michael Laris, «Scientists Know Ways to Help Stop Viruses from Spreading on Airplanes. They’re Too Late for This Pandemic», Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/scientists-think-they-know-waystocombat-virusesonairplanes-theyre-too-late-for-this-pandemic/2020/04/20/83279318-76ab-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html.
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1098
Министерство торговли США, Управление международной торговли, Национальное бюро путешествий и туризма.
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1099
«Historical Flight Status», FlightStats by Cerium, https://www.flightstats.com/v2/historical-flight/subscribe.
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1100
Мой спор на эту тему с Дэниелом Беллом см.: Daniel A. Bell, «Did the Chinese Government Deliberately Export COVID-19 to the Rest of the World?» Danielabell.com, April 21, 2020, https://danielabell.com/2020/04/21/did-the-chinese-government-deliberately-export-covid19tothe-restofthe-world/; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: An Update», Niallferguson.com, April 21, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinpinganupdate; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: Another Update», Niallferguson.com, May 26, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinping-another-update.
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1101
Matteo Chinazzi et al., «The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Outbreak», MedRxiv, February 11, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261.
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1102
Steve Eder et al., «430,000 People Have Traveled from China to U. S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced», New York Times, April 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html.
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1103
Phillip Connor, «More than NineinTen People Worldwide Live in Countries with Travel Restrictions amid COVID-19», Fact Tank, Pew Research Center, April 1, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/01/more-than-nineinten-people-worldwide-liveincountries-with-travel-restrictions-amid-covid19/; Anthony Faiola, «The Virus That Shut Down the World», Washington Post, June 26, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-pandemic-globalization/?itid= hp_hp-banner-main_virus-shutdown-630pm.