Злой рок. Политика катастроф

189

Philip W. Tetlock and Dan Gardiner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (New York: Crown, 2015).

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190

Scott Alexander, Slate Star Codex (blog), April 14, 2020, https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/afailure-but-notofprediction/.

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191

«The Bells of Hell Go Ting-a-ling-a-ling».

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192

Edward Verrall Lucas, The Vermilion Box (New York: George H. Doran Company, 1916), p. 343.

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193

Lucas, Vermilion Box, pp. 342f.

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194

Lucas, Vermilion Box, p. 346.

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195

Carl Werthman, «The Police as Perceived by Negro Boys», in The American City: A Source Book of Urban Imagery, ed. Anselm L. Strauss (Chicago: Aldine, 1968), p. 285.

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196

Пер. М. Кузмина. Уильям Шекспир. Король Лир. Акт IV, сцена 1.

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197

Kevin Rawlinson, «‘This Enemy Can Be Deadly’: Boris Johnson Invokes Wartime Language», Guardian, March 17, 2020; Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), «The Invisible Enemy will soon be in full retreat!» Twitter, April 10, 2020, 9:15 a.m., https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1248630671754563585.

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198

Lawrence Freedman, «Coronavirus and the Language of War», New Statesman, April 11, 2020, https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2020/04/coronavirus-and-language-war; Karl Eikenberry and David Kennedy Tuesday, «World War COVID-19: Who Bleeds, Who Pays?» Lawfare (blog), April 28, 2020, https://www.lawfareblog.com/world-war-covid19wh-bleeds-who-pays.

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199

Anne Curry, The Hundred Years War, 2nd ed. (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), p. 5.

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200

Izabella Kaminska, «Man Group’s Draaisma Notes Inflation Paradigm Shift Is Possible», Financial Times, March 20, 2020, https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/20/1584698846000/Man-GroupsDraaisma-notes-inflation-paradigm-shiftispossible/.

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201

John Authers, «And Now for Something Completely Different», Bloomberg, March 19, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200319/lagardesecb-bazooka-needs-fiscal-support-from-governments.

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202

«Coronavirus Tracked», Financial Times, July 10, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441. См. также: Giuliana Viglione, «How Many People Has the Coronavirus Killed?», Nature 585 (September 1, 2020), pp. 22–24, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02497w.

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203

Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid19/report12global-impact-covid19/.

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204

Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).

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205

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).

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206

Peter Taylor, «Catastrophes and Insurance», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 181. См. также: Didier Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-Organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, 2nd ed. (Berlin: Springer, 2004).

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207

Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen (New York: Penguin Random House, 2002).

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208

Brian Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», American Scientist 90 (January – February 2002), pp. 10–15.

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209

Celine Cunen, Nils Lid Hjort, and Havard Mokleiv Nygard, «Statistical Sightings of Better Angels: Analysing the Distribution of Battle-Deaths in Interstate Conflict Over Time», Journal of Peace Research 57, no. 2 (2020), pp. 221–234.

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210

Edward D. Lee et al., «A Scaling Theory of Armed Conflict Avalanches», April 29, 2020, arXiv:2004.14311v1.

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211

Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09, 36 (2009), http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.

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212

Edward Lorenz, «Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow», Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20 (1963), pp. 130, 141.

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213

Edward Lorenz, «Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?» presented before the American Association for the Advancement of Science, December 29, 1972.

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214

Simon Kennedy and Peter Coy, «Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting Recessions?» Bloomberg Businessweek, March 27, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20190328/economists-are-actually-terribleatforecasting-recessions.