Больше, чем вы знаете. Необычный взгляд на мир финансов

8. Richard Foster and Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Were Built to Last Underperform the Markets – and How to Successfully Transform Them (New York: Doubleday, 2001), 13; John Y. Campbell, Martin Lettau, Burton Malkiel, and Yexiao Xu, “Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Explanation of Idiosyncratic Risk”, Journal of Finance 54 (February 2001): 1–43.

9. J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence M. Summers, “The ‘New Economy’: Background, Historical Perspective, Questions and Speculations”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 2001. См.: http://www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/

10. ECONREV/Pdf/4q01delo.pdf.

11. Alfred Rappaport and Michael J. Mauboussin, Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns (Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business School Press, 2001), 26–27, 36–38.

Глава 22. Играйте по правилам

1. См. статью «Часто задаваемые вопросы о Deep Blue», http://www.research.ibm.com/deepblue/meet/html/d.3.3.html.

2. Katie Haffner, “In an Ancient Game, Computing’s Future”, New York Times, August 1, 2002.

3. Anna Muoio, “All the Right Moves”, Fast Company, May 1999; http://www.fastcompany.com/online/24/chess.html.

4. Эта идея перекликается с рекомендацией игрокам Пагги Пирсона. См.: Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Puggy Pearson’s Prescription”, The Consilient Observer 1, no. 11 (June 4, 2002).

5. Kathleen M. Eisenhardt and Donald N. Sull, “Strategy as Simple Rules”, Harvard Business Review (January 2001): 107–16.

Глава 23. Выживают наиболее приспособленные

1. Dan Goodgame, “The Game of Risk: How the Best Golfers in the World Got Even Better”, Time, August 14, 2000.

2. Stuart Kaufmann, At Home in the Universe (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).

3. Steve Maguire, “Strategy is Design: A Fitness Landscape Framework”, Managing Complexity in Organizations: A View in Many Directions (Westport, Conn.: Quorum Books, 1999), 67–104.

4. Eric D. Beinhocker, “Robust Adaptive Strategies”, Sloan Management Review 40, no. 3 (Spring 1999): 95–106.

5. Daniel C. Dennett, Darwin’s Dangerous Idea: Evolution and the Meanings of Life (New York: Simon & Shuster, 1995).

6. Robert Loest, “Fitness Landscapes and Investment Strategies, Parts 1 and 2”, Portfolio Manager Commentary – IPS Funds (July and August 1998).

7. Clayton M. Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Companies to Fail (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997).

8. Michael J. Mauboussin and Alexander Schay, “Innovation and Markets: How Innovation Affects the Investing Process”, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity Research, December 12, 2000.

9. По-другому эти стратегии можно назвать стратегиями «использования» или «исследования». См.: Robert Axelrod and Michael D. Cohen, Harvesting Complexity (New York: Free Press, 1999), 43–58.

10. W. Brian Arthur, “Increasing Returns and the New World of Business”, Harvard Business Review (July-August 1996): 101–9.

11. Под руководством Джека Уэлча General Electric эффективно сочетала оптимизацию с риском. Например, Уэлч выделил руководителям крупнейших подразделений GE по нескольку сотен миллионов долларов, которые они могли расходовать по своему усмотрению «без вопросов». См.: Warren Bennis, “Will the Legacy Live On?”, Harvard Business Review (February 2002): 95–99.

12. Michael J. Mauboussin, “Get Real”, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity Research, June 23, 1999.

13. Shona L. Brown and Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, Competing on the Edge: Strategy as Structured Chaos (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998).

Глава 24. Прострация от экстраполяции

1. См.: http://www.socialsecurity.gov/history/hfaq.html.

2. Richard Roll, “Rational Infinitively-Lived Asset Prices Must Be Non-Stationary”, Working Paper, November 1, 2000; Bradford Cornell, The Equity Risk Premium: The Long-Run Future of the Stock Market (New York: Wiley, 1999), 45–55; Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, “The Equity Premium”, Journal of Finance 57 (2002): 637–59; Jonathan Lewellen, “Predicting Returns with Financial Ratios”, MIT Sloan Working Paper 4374–02, February 2002.

3. Kenneth L. Fisher and Meir Statman, “Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts: The Frailty of Forecasting”, The Journal of Portfolio Management 27, no. 1 (Fall 2000): 72–81.

4. Alfred Rappaport, “How to Avoid P/E Trap”, Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2003.

5. Cornell, The Equity Risk Premium, 59.

6. См.: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/.

Глава 25. Я упал и не могу подняться

1. Слова Лаконишока процитированы в статье Марка Хулберта «Прогнозы на ближайшие пять лет кажутся превосходными… или нет?», New York Times, от 25 января 2004 г.

2. Louis K. C. Chan, Jason J. Karceski, and Josef Lakonishok, “The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates”, The Journal of Finance 58, no. 2 (April 2003): 644–84. Также см. главу 30.

3. Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Wither Enron: Or – Why Enron Withered”, The Consilient Observer 1, no. 1 (January 15, 2002).

4. Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation”, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity Research, December 16, 2002.

5. Michael J. Mauboussin, Alexander Schay, and Patrick J. McCarthy, “Competitive Advantage Period (CAP): At the Intersection of Finance and Competitive Strategy”, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity Research, October 4, 2001.

6. Там же, 7–9.