Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости

UniversityPress.

Eysenck,M.W.,andM.T.Keane,2000,Cognitive Psychology, 4thed.

London:PsychologyPress.

Fagot-Largeault, Anne, 2002,Philosophie des sciences biologiques et

medicaies. Paris: College de France.

Faia, M., 1975,"Productivity Among Scientists: A Replication and

Elaboration." American Sociological Review 40:825-829. Faloutsos, M., P. Faloutsos, and C. Faloutsos, 1999,"On Power-law

Relationships of the Internet Topology." Computer Communications

Review 29:251-262.^

Favier, A., 1906,Un medecingrec du deuxieme siecle ap. J.-C, precurseur

de la methode exptrimentale moderne: Menodote de Nicomedie. Paris:

Jules Roisset.

Ferguson, Niall, 2005,1914:Why the World Went to War. London:

Penguin.

,2006a,The War of the World: History's Age of Hatred. London:

Allen Lane.

,2006b,"Political Risk and the International Bond Market

Between the 1848Revolution and the Outbreak of the First World

War." Economic History Review 59(1):70-112. Ferraro, К. E, and J. A. Kelley-Moore, 2003,"Cumulative Disadvantage

and Health: Long-term Consequences of Obesity?" American

Sociological Review 68:707-729. Feyerabend, Paul, 1987,Farewell to Reason. London: Verso. Finucane, M. L., A. Alhakami, P. Slovic, and S. M. Johnson, 2000,"The

Affect a Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits." Journal of

Behavioral Decision Making 13:1-17. Fischhoff, Baruch, 1982a,"Debiasing." In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and

A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

,1982b,"For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Heuristics

and Biases in Hindsight." In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky,

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press. Fischhoff, В., and D. MacGregor, 1983,"Judged Lethality: How Much

People Seem to Know Depends on How They Are Asked." Risk Analysis

3:229-236.

Fischhoff, Baruch, Paul Slovic, and Sarah Lichtenstein, 1977,"Knowing i with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence." Journal of Experimental Psychology 3(4):552-564.

Floridi, Luciano, 2002,The Transmission and Recovery of Pyrrhonism.

Oxford: Oxford University Press. Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl, 2002,

"Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects—Error or Lie."

American Journal of Planning 68(3),http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/

JAPAASPUBLISHED.pdf. Fodor, Jerry A., 1983,The Modularity of Mind: An Essay on Faculty

Psychology. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. Foster, George, 1977,"Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-series Properties and Predictive Ability Results." Accounting Review 52:1-21. Fox, M. A., and P. Kochanowski, 2004,"Models of Superstardom: An

Application of the Lotka and Yule Distributions." Popular Music and

Society 27:507-522.Frame, Donald M., 1965,Montaigne: A Biography. New York: Harcourt

Brace and World.

Frank, Jerome D., 1935,"Some Psychological Determinants of the Level of Aspiration." American Journal of Psychology 47:285-293.

Frank, Robert, 1994,"Talent and the Winner-Take-All Society." A review of Derek Bok's The Cost of Talent: How Executives and Professionals Are Paid and How It Affects America, New York: The Free Press, 1993,in The American Prospect 5(17),http://www.prospect.org/cs/ articles?article=talent_and_the_winnertakeall_society

Frank, Robert H., 1985,Choosing the Right Pond: Human Behavior and the Quest for Status. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Frank, Robert H., and P. J. Cook, 1995,The Winner-Take-All Society: Why the Few at the Top Get So Much More Than the Rest of Us. New York: The Free Press.

Frankfurter, G. M., and E. G. McGoun, 1996,Toward Finance with Meaning: The Methodology of Finance: What It Is and What It Can Be. Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press.

Freedman, D. A., and P. B. Stark, 2003,"What Is the Chance of an

Earthquake?" Technical Report 611of the Department of Statistics,

University of California, Berkeley, September 2001,revised January

2003.

Friesen, Geoffrey, and Paul A. Weller, 2002,"Quantifying Cognitive Biases in Analyst Earnings Forecasts." Working Paper, University of Iowa.

Frohlich,N.,J.A.Oppenheimer,andC.L.Eavy,1987a,"Laboratory ResultsonRawls'sDistributiveJustice."British Journal of Political Science 17:1-21.

,1987b,"ChoicesofPrinciplesofDistributiveJusticeinExperimen-

talGroups."AmericanJournal of Political Science 31(3):606-636.

Froot,K.A.,2001,"TheMarketforCatastropheRisk:AClinicalExamination,"Journal of Financial Economics 60(2-3):529-571.

Fukuyama,Francis,1992,The End of History and the Last Man. New York:TheFreePress.

Fuller,Steve,2005,The Intellectual. London:IconBooks.

Fulton,Alice,1998,"FractalAmplifications:WritinginThreeDimen-

sions."Thumbscrew 12(winter).

Gabaix,X.,P.Gopikrishnan,V.Plerou,andH.E.Stanley,2003, "ATheoryofPower-lawDistributionsinFinancialMarketFluc-tuations."Nature 423:267-270.

Gaddis,JohnLewis,2002,The Landscape of History: How Historians Map

the Past. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress. Galbraith,JohnKenneth,1997,The Great Crash 1929.NewYork:

MarinerBooks.

Galison,Peter,2003,Einstein's Clocks, Poincare's Maps: Empires of Time.

NewYork:W.W.NortonandCompany. Gave,Charles,AnatoleKaletsky,andLouis-VincentGave,2005,Our

Brave New World. London:GaveKalResearch. Gazzaniga,M.S.,R.Ivry,andG.R.Mangun,2002,Cognitive Neu-

roscience: The Biology of the Mind, 2nded.NewYork:W.W.Norton

andCompany.

Gazzaniga,Michael,andJosephLeDoux,1978,The Integrated Mind. *PlenumPress.

Gazzaniga,MichaelS.,2005,The Ethical Brain. NewYork:DanaPress.